齊魯晚報(bao)·齊魯壹點記者(zhe)李(li)殷婷

　　山東(dong)是(shi)全國糧(liang)食(shi)生(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)大(da)(da)省，產(chan)量(liang)常(chang)年(nian)位(wei)居全國前(qian)三(san)位(wei)。今年(nian)春播以來，山東(dong)整(zheng)體(ti)氣象(xiang)條件有(you)利(li)于作(zuo)物生(sheng)(sheng)長發育(yu)，各類作(zuo)物長勢良好，農業(ye)氣象(xiang)災(zai)害總體(ti)較輕，全年(nian)糧(liang)食(shi)總產(chan)有(you)望再創新高。齊魯(lu)晚報(bao)·齊魯(lu)壹點記者從山東(dong)省氣象(xiang)局(ju)獲悉，預(yu)計9月，山東(dong)出現連陰雨天(tian)氣的可(ke)能性(xing)不大(da)(da)，氣象(xiang)條件總體(ti)利(li)于秋作(zuo)物產(chan)量(liang)形成。預(yu)計2020年(nian)全年(nian)糧(liang)食(shi)總產(chan)較上年(nian)增(zeng)加(jia)75萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)左右(you)，夏玉(yu)米(mi)總產(chan)增(zeng)加(jia)59萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)左右(you)，大(da)(da)豆總產(chan)增(zeng)加(jia)10萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)左右(you)，棉(mian)花總產(chan)減少2萬(wan)(wan)噸(dun)左右(you)。

　　據(ju)了(le)解，基(ji)于秋收作(zuo)物播種以來農(nong)業氣象條件及(ji)短(duan)期(qi)氣候趨勢預測(ce)，結合衛星遙感監測(ce)、作(zuo)物機(ji)理預報模型計算結果，預計2020年(nian)(nian)(nian)山東全年(nian)(nian)(nian)糧食單(dan)產(chan)為(wei)437.7公斤/畝，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增加(jia)1.9%，總(zong)(zong)產(chan)為(wei)5431.6萬(wan)噸，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增加(jia)1.4%;夏(xia)玉米(mi)單(dan)產(chan)為(wei)446.7公斤/畝，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增加(jia)1.6%，總(zong)(zong)產(chan)為(wei)2595.1萬(wan)噸，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增加(jia)2.3%;大豆(dou)單(dan)產(chan)為(wei)191.0公斤/畝，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增加(jia)0.4%，總(zong)(zong)產(chan)為(wei)62.1萬(wan)噸，較(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)增18.58:

　　前期氣象條件有利子作物生長發育

　　今年(nian)，由(you)于冬小麥(mai)生育期內大部(bu)時段氣象條(tiao)件(jian)適(shi)宜，產量將再創新高(gao);大部(bu)地(di)區春播、夏(xia)播期間降(jiang)(jiang)水(shui)偏多，播種質量高(gao)，出苗整齊;春、夏(xia)播作(zuo)物(wu)苗期溫度適(shi)宜，降(jiang)(jiang)水(shui)充沛，苗情普(pu)遍較好;夏(xia)玉(yu)米開花授粉(fen)期間無持續(xu)高(gao)溫天氣，利于產量提高(gao)。

　　農(nong)業氣象災害總體較輕

　　由(you)于今(jin)年(nian)(nian)5-6月(yue)風雹天氣較多(duo)，造(zao)成局地春(chun)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)倒(dao)伏，棉花(hua)(hua)等春(chun)播作物植株受損。7月(yue)21-23日(ri)強降水導致魯(lu)西(xi)(xi)南地區(qu)排水不暢的平(ping)(ping)原和(he)低洼農田(tian)(tian)短時(shi)積水，棉花(hua)(hua)花(hua)(hua)蕾脫落增(zeng)(zeng)多(duo)，預計今(jin)年(nian)(nian)山東(dong)省棉花(hua)(hua)單產為(wei)78.0公(gong)斤/畝(mu)，較上(shang)年(nian)(nian)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)1.0%， 總產為(wei)17.9萬噸，較上(shang)年(nian)(nian)減少8.7%。而半島(dao)中東(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)及魯(lu)南部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分地區(qu)農田(tian)(tian)過濕，對夏玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)拔節期生長(chang)有一定不利影響(xiang)。根據7月(yue)30日(ri)衛星遙感監測，山東(dong)全省玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)平(ping)(ping)均植被指數為(wei)0.62，較上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同期偏(pian)(pian)高0.07，除魯(lu)西(xi)(xi)北和(he)半島(dao)東(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分地區(qu)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)長(chang)勢偏(pian)(pian)差外，其他大部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分地區(qu)較上(shang)年(nian)(nian)偏(pian)(pian)好或持(chi)平(ping)(ping)，偏(pian)(pian)好、持(chi)平(ping)(ping)和(he)偏(pian)(pian)差的比例分別為(wei)39%、53%和(he)8%。依據作物機理(li)模型模擬，預計大部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)地區(qu)夏玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)穗重(zhong)較上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同期增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)1.0%~3.0%，魯(lu)西(xi)(xi)北西(xi)(xi)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)、魯(lu)西(xi)(xi)南部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分地區(qu)、魯(lu)中東(dong)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)及半島(dao)部(bu)(bu)(bu)(bu)分地區(qu)較上(shang)年(nian)(nian)同期增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)3.0%以上(shang)。